Helena Valley Northeast, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 6 Miles N Helena MT
National Weather Service Forecast for:
6 Miles N Helena MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Great Falls, MT |
Updated: 9:56 am MDT Jul 26, 2025 |
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Today
 Chance T-storms
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Tonight
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Sunday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Monday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers
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Monday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms then Mostly Cloudy
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Tuesday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Tuesday Night
 Chance T-storms then Mostly Cloudy
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Wednesday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers
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Hi 88 °F |
Lo 52 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 54 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 55 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
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Today
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Widespread haze between 2pm and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light east southeast wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Tonight
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 52. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Sunday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Sunday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. |
Monday
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A 30 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Monday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. |
Tuesday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. |
Tuesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest after midnight. |
Wednesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. |
Wednesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. |
Friday
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A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 6 Miles N Helena MT.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
568
FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1052 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through
next week.
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop each afternoon
this weekend with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard in
addition to lightning.
- Temperatures fluctuate close to seasonable norms for late July
through the upcoming week.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 906 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025/
No significant changes in thoughts this morning on the risk of
showers and thunderstorms producing gusty winds today. Convective
initiation looks to be early to mid afternoon across portions of
Southwest Montana. Activity spreads north and northeastward with
time, eventually reaching the plains late afternoon into the early
evening. A few high resolution guidance members have been a bit
more aggressive with forming a few thunderstorms east of the
Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon in an area of better shear.
The risk is conditional, but should a thunderstorm form in this
area, the environment appears to be at least marginally conducive
for a supercell.
The forecast is handling this well, with only minor changes made
this morning. -AM
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 906 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
The area remains under a general southwest flow aloft between a
large scale ridge that gradually migrates from the southeast US
westward across the US Plains through next week, while an upper
level trough remains anchored along the West coast. Subtle
disturbances ejecting out of the western trough and available
mid-level moisture and instability will lead to daily shower and
thunderstorm development through much of the week ahead under this
relatively persistent pattern.
Temperatures remain fairly warm today (mid-upper 80s) with a dry
and deeply mixed boundary layer (particularly across SW MT)
supporting initially high-based convection with an environment
favorable for strong wind gusts, even as storms track northward
and encounter somewhat better low level moisture across north-
central MT this evening. Higher low-level moisture (50F+
dewpoints) and slightly better wind shear (30-40kts) across
north-central MT may allow for some more organized/intense storms
early this evening with locally heavy downpours and small hail in
addition to the larger wind threat, though freezing levels around
14kft will likely keep the threat for larger hail limited.
While confidence in particular details decreases Sunday through
next week, the overall mid-upper level setup changes little. Low
level east to southeast flow does look to bring additional low-
level moisture into the area next week, supporting an increased
chance for localized heavier precipitation beneath storms as the
week progresses. Hoenisch
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Thunderstorms today should initiate early this afternoon across
the SW MT mountains and track northeast in the southwesterly
steering flow with the greatest coverage across central MT early
this evening (5pm-9pm). Hi-resolution model ensembles support a
40-60% chance of wind gusts in excess of 40 mph associated with
storms across central MT late this afternoon/evening with 10-20%
risk of gusts in excess of 55 mph centered on an area from the Big
Belt Mtns northeast across the Little Belts and the Judith Basin
area. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
26/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail throughout much of the 2618/2718 TAF
period, but periods of MVFR conditions due to reduced VIS from
precipitation and/or low CIGS beneath thunderstorms will be
possible. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the Continental Divide between 19-20z, with this activity then
spreading east to northeast over the surrounding mountains,
valleys, and plains. Main window for any thunderstorm to impact a
given terminal exists between 26/20z and 27/04z, with the primary
hazard from any thunderstorm(s) that do impact a given terminal
being gusty and erratic winds of upwards of 40kts. Local mountain
obscuration is possible this afternoon and evening, but widespread
obscuration is not expected. - Moldan
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 86 56 84 56 / 30 30 10 20
CTB 79 50 77 52 / 20 10 10 20
HLN 87 55 86 56 / 50 40 30 30
BZN 90 51 88 51 / 40 20 20 20
WYS 82 39 80 39 / 10 10 10 0
DLN 84 47 84 48 / 40 20 30 10
HVR 88 55 85 56 / 20 20 0 30
LWT 85 53 81 53 / 40 50 20 40
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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