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Helena Valley Northeast, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 6 Miles N Helena MT
National Weather Service Forecast for: 6 Miles N Helena MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Great Falls, MT
Updated: 9:56 am MDT Jul 26, 2025
 
Today

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm.  Widespread haze between 2pm and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light east southeast wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm.  Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 52. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable  after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Monday

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest  after midnight.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Cloudy
Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Hi 88 °F Lo 52 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 53 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 54 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 55 °F Hi 85 °F

 

Today
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Widespread haze between 2pm and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light east southeast wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 52. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Monday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest after midnight.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.
Thursday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Friday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 6 Miles N Helena MT.

Weather Forecast Discussion
568
FXUS65 KTFX 261652
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1052 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through
   next week.

 - A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop each afternoon
   this weekend with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard in
   addition to lightning.

 - Temperatures fluctuate close to seasonable norms for late July
   through the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 906 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025/

No significant changes in thoughts this morning on the risk of
showers and thunderstorms producing gusty winds today. Convective
initiation looks to be early to mid afternoon across portions of
Southwest Montana. Activity spreads north and northeastward with
time, eventually reaching the plains late afternoon into the early
evening. A few high resolution guidance members have been a bit
more aggressive with forming a few thunderstorms east of the
Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon in an area of better shear.
The risk is conditional, but should a thunderstorm form in this
area, the environment appears to be at least marginally conducive
for a supercell.

The forecast is handling this well, with only minor changes made
this morning. -AM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 906 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

The area remains under a general southwest flow aloft between a
large scale ridge that gradually migrates from the southeast US
westward across the US Plains through next week, while an upper
level trough remains anchored along the West coast. Subtle
disturbances ejecting out of the western trough and available
mid-level moisture and instability will lead to daily shower and
thunderstorm development through much of the week ahead under this
relatively persistent pattern.

Temperatures remain fairly warm today (mid-upper 80s) with a dry
and deeply mixed boundary layer (particularly across SW MT)
supporting initially high-based convection with an environment
favorable for strong wind gusts, even as storms track northward
and encounter somewhat better low level moisture across north-
central MT this evening. Higher low-level moisture (50F+
dewpoints) and slightly better wind shear (30-40kts) across
north-central MT may allow for some more organized/intense storms
early this evening with locally heavy downpours and small hail in
addition to the larger wind threat, though freezing levels around
14kft will likely keep the threat for larger hail limited.

While confidence in particular details decreases Sunday through
next week, the overall mid-upper level setup changes little. Low
level east to southeast flow does look to bring additional low-
level moisture into the area next week, supporting an increased
chance for localized heavier precipitation beneath storms as the
week progresses. Hoenisch

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Thunderstorms today should initiate early this afternoon across
the SW MT mountains and track northeast in the southwesterly
steering flow with the greatest coverage across central MT early
this evening (5pm-9pm). Hi-resolution model ensembles support a
40-60% chance of wind gusts in excess of 40 mph associated with
storms across central MT late this afternoon/evening with 10-20%
risk of gusts in excess of 55 mph centered on an area from the Big
Belt Mtns northeast across the Little Belts and the Judith Basin
area. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout much of the 2618/2718 TAF
period, but periods of MVFR conditions due to reduced VIS from
precipitation and/or low CIGS beneath thunderstorms will be
possible. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the Continental Divide between 19-20z, with this activity then
spreading east to northeast over the surrounding mountains,
valleys, and plains. Main window for any thunderstorm to impact a
given terminal exists between 26/20z and 27/04z, with the primary
hazard from any thunderstorm(s) that do impact a given terminal
being gusty and erratic winds of upwards of 40kts. Local mountain
obscuration is possible this afternoon and evening, but widespread
obscuration is not expected. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  86  56  84  56 /  30  30  10  20
CTB  79  50  77  52 /  20  10  10  20
HLN  87  55  86  56 /  50  40  30  30
BZN  90  51  88  51 /  40  20  20  20
WYS  82  39  80  39 /  10  10  10   0
DLN  84  47  84  48 /  40  20  30  10
HVR  88  55  85  56 /  20  20   0  30
LWT  85  53  81  53 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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